Horse Racing Tips – 11th July 2015
A nice breather for us last week while the races were a little on the weak side. Things aren’t much better this week, but a few nice horses are popping up.
Enough tom foolery, let’s get back in the winners and give the million places a miss. Although I do feel like a little risk today, so a few solid roughies make an appearance.
Outside of getting odds early, the best way to maximise your wins is to have an online bookie that gives you the ‘Best of’ markets. We prefer Bet365 because it gives you the best of the totes or the fixed price, and always seem to have the best fixed odds. Get a Bet365 account here
We recommend placing 1 unit each way on those with suitable place odds ($1.80 or more). Otherwise it is 2 units on the nose or 1 unit for multi’s.
Race 1: Pin Your Hopes
Let’s start the day with a big roughie. Scratched from a 150k race in Melbourne to run in a race 1 mile here. Five horses and carrying no weight at all. The odds are huge overs.
Race 3: Wings (Danger: Noela’s Choice)
Was a toss-up between 2 horses here but Wings gets the nod over Noela’s Choice. This is a fair bit harder here but she drops 6kg on last start and is drawn perfectly. Should come home very strong at bigger odds than I expected.
Race 6: Queen of Kariba
No reason she can’t win this, although there are a few smart ones in the race. Won on heavy so that’s no concern and she is carrying no weight.
Race 7: Its About You | Astronomos
Looks two standouts here, and the market says the same. Astronomos has won 2 from 3 on the heavy, plus drops some weight and starts from barrier 1. Will be right in the finish. Its About You has amazing recent form and carries only 51kg. Wide barrier may be only concern if he gets caught wide.
Race 1: El Greco
Got bloused last start, but should be winning here, and giving us a boost to start the day.
Race 3: Jessy Belle
Always pops up and does her bit for us. Last start was the moment, but she is a huge show here again. Will be flying home.
Race 4: Vatuvei
Have watched this Moody horse for a long time now. Seemed to be getting over the hill and then a change to the hurdles saw him win two straight, with the last by 8L. Comes back to the flat track and drops 12.5 kgs and back to 2000m from 3200m. Will be fit as hell and the market says he is the worst horse in the field. I love a little challenge and will have a little each way go.
Race 6: Tried and Tired
Odds for this are a little overs I believe. Is a solid performer and is drawn ok. Some good horses in this, but at double figures I give him just as much chance as any.
Race 9: De little Engine
God help me if he runs 4th again. Clearly has the ability and gets in nice at the weights. Just seems to leave it too late. Hopefully they learn this time.
Race 2: Suit
Hasn’t run for over a year and has moved to a smaller stable up in QLD. I received some sneaky mail that his track work has been pretty special, so let’s hope he puts it out on the track for us all.
Race 7: Real Surreal
So many could pop up in this but I am sticking to Real Surreal. Forget last start where she was wide the trip and in a Group 1. Race prior she finished like a train. The only concern is she gets too far back and that can be a problem at Doomben. I will take it on.
Race 2: No Song No Supper
Record over the jumps is brilliant, and only got beaten last start by a very good horse. Should be too good here as a double-your-money job.
Race 4: Pendlebury
Last start was full of merit and something tells me the 1500m will suit perfectly. Barrier 4 helps and so does the claim.
Race 7: Capodecina
Overdue for a win after some solid performances. The drop to 1700m will be handy and this race is not that strong. Watch for him to come home with a bang.
Race 2: Hazzabeel
You won’t get much for this bloke but there are no reasons why he loses. Assess it closer.
Race 3: Settlers Creek
Really like the odds on this bloke here. A big drop in class and keeps a nice weight. Barrier 2 is ideal for a nice run behind the leaders, and providing he gets out should run a strong 2100m. Good chance
Race 4: Top Show
Red Ora is the one to beat here and for good reason but I like the little extra value on Top Show. Forget last start in much harder company, she is drawn well, weighted nicely and will be finishing strongly. A little luck and she is finishes over the top.
Race 6: Pants on Friar
One our my favourites here resuming. Can run a sneaky race first up, and $7+ is lovely for her. I have to.
Race 7: Rebel King
Been frustrating lately, but not because of poor runs. He has been running superbly and just beaten by some very smart ones. The frustration is he has been very short. Not today where we should get around $3-$4. I will take it.
For those that love a multi
Queen of Kariba
Big Place Multi
Queen of Kariba
De Little Engine
Remember to go grab a Bet365 account. They easily offer the best alternate lines to lower your risk and increase value, and the in-play markets are awesome.