Horse Racing Tips – 17th October 2015

Horse Racing Tips – 17th October 2015

A nice winner today and profit of 5.7 units to warm us up for Saturdays HUGE day of racing.

The pinnacle is of course the Caulfield Cup, but there are plenty of other very promising races to keep us pumped all day.

Our horse racing messiah (let’s call him that at the moment), it still forcing the bookies to re-mortgage their houses at a rapid rate. Feels good!

Let’s make more and more!

To date in 2015 we are 526+ units in profit. That’s $52k if you are a $100 punter, or $5.2k for you $10 punters. Not bad at all.



Maximising your Profits

Outside of getting odds early, the best way to maximise your wins is to have online bookies that gives you the best markets. While we use many bookies (and may bring them for best odds), the best of the lot as a single bookie is Bet365.

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– ‘Middle tote+’ giving you the best middle tote plus 5%

– ‘Best fluctuation’ markets giving you the best official on-course price

Bet365 also offers the 3 place dividends on early bets when the number of horses is 8 or more. Last week this was essential, as those who placed the multi close to race time missed out because Shiraz ran 3rd.

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Other Bookies

We would recommend three other bookies to help maximise your horse racing profits. They give a great selection of fixed odds and provide some fantastic promotions on select race days. Definitely worth having if you can manage it.

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Recommended Staking

We recommend placing 1 unit each way on those with suitable place odds ($2.00 or more). Otherwise it is 2 units on the nose or 1 unit for multi’s.

Remember 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll. So for those of you with a $1000 bankroll your unit will be $10


Saturday 17th October 2015

Caulfield (VIC)


IMPORTANT: Depending on your unit stake, check these promotions out and use them accordingly.

Ladbrokes: Get 50% bonus on fixed wins in races 1-5 >>>Max Bet $50

William Hill: Money back in races 1-4 if your horse finishes in the first half of the field >>> Max Bet $25

Crownbet: Run 2nd, 3rd or 4th in any of the last 4 races and receive a bonus bet >>> Max Bet $100


Race 3 – Dilmah Single Origin Teas Caulfield Sprint (1000 METRES)

Analysis: Looked at home in Vic last start behind one of the toughest sprinters on the past few years. Will once again get a great run from the inside (most likely behind Rain Affair) and at the front on the turn has a solid turn of foot. He will have some chasers though. Lumosty is a bloody good horse but no trial leading in worries me a touch. Kuro and Kinglike will be charging.

Tip: Ball of Muscle (2 unit WIN) >> Bet365 Place your bet right here


Race 5 – Ladbrokes Caulfield Classic (2000 METRES)

Analysis: A huge drop back in class here in my opinion. Wide barrier hurts a bit but with some luck will slot nicely. Should be right in the finish again.

Tip: Lizard Island (1 unit each way @ $5.50 and $2.10) >> Bet365 Place your bet here


Race 6 – David Jones Cup (2000 METRES)

Analysis: Fenway’s finish last start was too good to ignore for this. Has never missed the place at this distance and from Barrier 5 gets a real chance to put together back-to-back wins.

Tip: Fenway (1 unit each-way) >> Bet365 Place your bet here


Race 7 – William Hill Moonga Stakes (1400 METRES)

Analysis: Under the Louvre is the class horse here and considering his form in much tougher races he should be very hard to beat. He has drawn the car park though and this opens some opportunity. Worthy Cause collected the cheque for us last start and will be prominent again. Williams jump aboard and it will be about peak fitness now. Expect a forward showing and it does have a turn of foot to catch.

Tip: Under the Louvre (2 units WIN) >> Bet365 Place your bet here

Value: Worthy Cause (1 unit each-way @ $9.50 and $3.00) >> Bet365 Place your bet here


Race 8 – Schweppes Tristarc Stakes (1400 METRES)

Analysis: I guess this is a little personal here on a horse that I (we) all love. It would be criminal to ignore here after what she has done for us. The wide barrier has kept the odds out but she has had limited luck in her previous two and has been right in the mix. GO JESSY GO!

Tip: Jessy Belle (1 unit each way @ $12.00 and $3.80) >> Ladbrokes Place your bet here


Race 9 – BMW Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)

Analysis: As always this is so tough to find a winner and be confident. It would be foolish not to at least have a crack, but our selection follows a last start tip. The Khan has worked toward this is as good a fashion as anything. Last start with no luck kept coming and coming and just missed. The trip is ideal at this stage and so is the barrier. he drops 3 kgs on last start and does look so tough to beat with some luck (as any will need).

Tip: Mongolian Khan (1 unit each way) >> Bet365 Place your bet here


Race 10 – Crown Golden Ale Alinghi Stakes (1100 METRES)

Analysis: This is a very fast horse who has made its way to Vic. Drawn ideally and will likely sit one out one back. Watch for the finish to end the day.

Tip: The Messina Nymph (1 unit each way @ $5.50 and $2.10) >> Bet365 Place your bet here


Royal Randwick (NSW)


Analysis: Last start was very good behind some good horses. This is a little easier here and the 1400m should suit nicely. Barrier 10 is a little thorn but let’s take it on and play for some luck.

Tip: Moral Victory (1 unit each way @ $7.50 and $2.50) >> Bet365 Place your bet here



Analysis: This is a very tough race make no mistake. I wouldn’t be shocked if anyone avoided it but I can’t ignore the odds on the Queenslander (but maybe I am biased). Jim Byrne follows the Saga to Sydney and from Barrier 2 should see a very soft run. He has a turn of foot to match and at the odds why not.

Tip: Secret Saga (1 unit each way at $15.00 and $4.40) >> Crownbet Place your bet here



Analysis: WOW what a race. On their day most of these can easily win this. Craftiness is much better than his Victoria run and will be right in with a chance. That’s a Good idea is tough as nails, will lead, and take some getting past. I am with the Swoop again though. In such good form and taking on everything in his stride. This is arguably his hardest test but he is drawn perfectly and is likely to sit just of the Idea. What a big finish we will get.

Tip: Fell Swoop (2 units WIN) >> Bet365 Place your bet here



Analysis: Absolutely flying into this after a second in a group 1 prior. Drops back to listed grade and really should be too good despite the heavy weight.

Tip: Beaten Up  (2 units WIN) >> Bet365 Place your bet here



Analysis: Won 2 of 3 first up and has trialled twice coming in. Something tells me Snowden will have this lady ready to fire. I am willing to find out at the odds.

Tip: Nayeli  (1 unit each way @ $8.00 and $3.20) >> Bet365 Place your bet here


Doomben (QLD)


Analysis: A very smart horse resuming. Should be too good here if she runs to ability. $2.10 fixed is short but it is hard to tell which way it goes.

Tip: Hidden Pearl (2 units WIN) >> Bet365 Place your bet right here


Race 6 – CHRIS ANDERSON RACING BenchMark 90 Handicap (1350 METRES)

Analysis: The odds about Beckham frightens me a tad here, but maybe it is just because of last starts disappointment. Look for him to bounce back and be incredibly tough to beat. Expect Grayson Square to improve from his first start. He is use to racing in much tougher than this. Worth a sneak $$ or two.

Tip: Beckham (2 units WIN) >> Bet365 Place your bet right here

Roughie: Grayson Square (1 unit each way @ 413.00 and $3.50) >> Bet365 Place your bet right here


Race 8- VERTICA CAPITAL Class 6 Plate (1200 METRES)

Analysis: Gave us a beautiful pay day last start and there is no reason she can’t again. This race has a little more depth, but just like last start she draws barrier 1 and will lead easily. The bookies seem to have missed the memo here. expect here to shorten.

Tip: Frilly Curtain (1 unit each way @ $15.00 and $4.50) >>  Ladbrokes Place your bet here


Morphettville (SA)

Race 7 – David Balfour Memorial Handicap (1200 METRES)

Analysis: Two horses catch my eye here and I think they fight out the finish. Northern Zhar is likely to push forward and sit pretty and be very tough to chase down. Watch for Trupt late, he loves a big finish and will be steaming home.

Tip: Trupt (2 units WIN @ $4.50) >> Bet365 Place your bet here

Tip: Northern Zhar (2 units WIN) >> Bet365 Place your bet here


Ascot (WA)


Analysis: Finished like a rocket over shorter ground last start to win by 2L. Add in Willy Pike and we have ourselves a greats tart to our Ascot campaign. We may have to settle for a touch less than $2 though.

Tip: Silversteam (2 units WIN) >> Bet365 Place your bet here



Analysis: Hard to knock the favourite here but it has never drawn wide and that is always question mark. Look down the page and we have another Williams/Pike combination on a horse that powered home to salute in his only start. The step up looks like it will suit and he gets the benefit of a batter barrier. Could just hand the favourite his first loss.

Tip: Major Detail (1 unit each-way @ $6.50 and $2.20) >> Bet365 Place your bet here



Analysis: Our boy looks to have come back in super fashion. I am still kicking myself for avoiding him first up but won’t make the same mistake here. Barrier 1 over 1400m…yes please. We are leaving out another old favourite in Dawn Approach though. Will run very well but It hink Bart will have a little too much power late.

Tip: Black Heart Bart (2 unit WIN) >> Bet365 Place your bet here



Analysis: Pretty solid first up behind good old Bart. Will be fitter here and I think has the edge over this lot. If he jumps well from Barrier 5 we are on!

Tip: Hazzabeel (2 units WIN) >> Bet365 Place your bet here