Horse Racing Tips – 21st November 2015
After a super Spring Carnival the last two weeks have been a little frustrating. That’s ok though because it’s all about the long-term, and considering that we are in some serious profit territory.
This weekend coming has some super races in Perth, but apart from that is extremely difficult. The good horses have gone away for some grass and the remaining horses make for some big fields and some very hard to match form. We will be selective and let’s hope jump on the goodies.
To date in 2015 we are +604.49 units in profit PLUS a further 34.7 units profit on our Private Community Facebook Page. That’s almost $64,000.00 if you are a $100 punter, or $16,000 for you $25 punters. Not bad at all.
Maximising your Profits
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We recommend placing 1 unit each way on those with suitable place odds ($2.00 or more). Otherwise it is 2 units on the nose or 1 unit for multi’s.
Remember 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll. So for those of you with a $1000 bankroll your unit will be $10
Saturday 21st November 2015
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Race 3 – Sam Miranda Handicap (2300 METRES)
Analysis: We received some very solid mail for this horse first up and as a result our private page cleaned right up. That win was easy, as it should of been, but based on that has to be considered again here. Has the distance form in Germany and providing the wide barrier doesn’t ruin things, will be right in the finish. Hard to get a read on what the market will do but something tells me it could drop.
Tip: Lips Areios (2 units WIN @ $3.00) >> Bet365
Race 7 – Magic Millions 3&4YO Classic (1100 METRES)
Analysis: I just can’t make a case for anything against the favourite here. Doesn’t mean put your house on it, but it does mean it deserves the title. I will take it for a little kitty boost.
Tip: Wild Rain (2 units WIN @ $2.85) >>Bet365
Race 8 – Sportsbet.com.au Ballarat Cup (2200 METRES)
Analysis: This is such a tough race. Could almost make a case for all of them on their day and there is some mixed form floating about. There may be some value here so let’s hope we found it. Forget last start for this guy and go on previous few. A big chance to sneak in the finish at some crazy odds.
Tip: Digitalism (0.5 units EACH-WAY @ $26.00 and $8.00) >> Bet365
Race 10 – City of Ballarat Tonks Plate (1200 METRES)
Analysis: Weinholt gets the gun run here and last two starts behind some class horses suggest it is a massive chance. Sang Choi Bao is an underrated horse that just hasn’t drawn a gate in past few. Gets one here and can finish with some speed. Should be positioned right with Weinholt and give us two chances in the straight.
Tip: Weinholt (2 units WIN @ $6.00) >> Bet365
Tip: Sang Choi Bao (0.5 unit EACH-WAY @ $15.00 and $4.00) >> Bet365
Race 5 – ASCEND SALES TROPHIES HANDICAP (1900 METRES)
Analysis: All the better chances on paper have increased considerably in weight and that concerns me. Lady Macan claims to 51.5 kgs and gets a decent drawn. Should be peaking right now and ready for this trip. Considering the cons against many others her odds a too juicy to refuse.
Tip: Lady Macan (1 unit EACH-WAY @ $15.00 and $4.00) >> Bet365
Race 6 – SCHWEPPES FAREWELLS JIMMY CASSIDY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
Analysis: Has been freshened for this and he absolutely loves it fresh. Drawn 5 but with a bit of weight he really should be too good for these considering what he has beaten previously.
Tip: God’s in Him (2 units WIN @ $3.50) >> Bet365
Race 7 – THOROUGHBRED BREEDERS NSW HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
Analysis: I am sticking with her because she will win races. Drawn very poorly which really doesn’t help but once again should right in the mix against this field. She should roll forward and be hard to beat in the straight. Current odds are set too high so I am jumping all over them.
Tip: Festivity (2 units EACH-WAY @ $6.50 and $2.50) >> Bet365
Race 7 – SKY RACING OPEN Handicap (2200 METRES)
Analysis: I will give her one last chance here. Clearly just did not want to be there last start and still came home for a close 3rd. Gets a great claim to 51 kgs here and providing she settles we have a big chance to collect.
Tip: Col N Lil (1 units EACH-WAY @ $5.00 and $2.538) >> Bet365
Race 7 – TATTERSALL’S RECOGNITION STAKES (1600 METRES)
Analysis: I am sticking with the Prince here. Looks to have come back in super form and only just missed last start. Providing he gets some luck from the outside draw her will be very hard to beat over the mile where he has won 2 of 3.
Tip: Jumbo Prince (1 units EACH-WAY @ $5.00 and $2.538) >> Bet365
Race 3 – The Wellington Family Handicap (1250 METRES)
Analysis: No reason to think she won’t get us off to a flyer here. Something tells me Bet365 have got it slightly wrong here
Tip: Scratchy Lass (2 units WIN @ $3.30) >> Bet365
Race 4 – Haigh’s Chocolate Handicap (1950 METRES)
Analysis: Has been running pretty well around Victoria and is drawn perfectly here for a cushy run with bugger all weight. The distance will suit and I suspect he will give us something to cheer home in the last 200m.
Tip: War point (2 units WIN) >> Bet365
Race 5 – Alf Gard Memorial Handicap (1000 METRES)
Analysis: I can’t ignore his first up win for this. Has been freshened and draws barrier one. With 54 kgs on his back he will take a lot of catching over the 1000m.
Tip: Alabama Missile (1 unit EACH-WAY @ $4.50 and $1.80) >> Bet365
Race 6 – Peter Elberg Funerals Handicap (1550 METRES)
Analysis: Was brilliant 2 starts back and then last start never got a crack at them until very late. Even still made up significant ground in a hurry. Inside barrier and step up to the 1550m suits perfectly. Watch the Real Saga Mare burst through late.
Tip: Sagapuss (2 units WIN) >> Bet365
Race 8 – Schweppes Handicap (1000 METRES)
Analysis: Barrier 1 and drops to the 1000m. Last start suggest it goes very close here so we will give it one more chance in a pretty weak final race.
Tip: Roussanne (1 unit EACH-WAY @ $9.00 and $3.20) >> Bet365
Races 3, 4 & 5
Analysis: Three very good horses that really should be winning. Odds are bloody short for the first two so instead of risking multiple bets for nothing, let’s have one go at the 3.
Tip: Sheidel (see below)
TIP: Celebrity Dream
TREBLE BOTH HORSE ABOVE (2 units WIN) >> Bet365
Race 6 – Sky Racing-W.A. Guineas (1600m)
Analysis: I am sticking with him here. Word is that he is a very good horse going places, and last start was caught a little flat footed by a very good horse (and Jockey). Light weight here and some nice odds. YEP
Tip: Blackwood (1 unit EACH-WAY @ $7.00 and $2.50) >> Bet365
Race 7 – Crown Perth-Winterbottom Stakes (1200m)
Analysis: I am maybe biased but I am jumping all over the QLDer here. He delivered against the odds first up for us, and here he will go forward and is as tough as nails. If they take him on they will fail, the swoopers are the danger and they might not get him.. We got $4.50 for him yesterday but around $3 is it now. Search around.
Tip: Buffering (2 units WIN) >> Bet365
Race 8 – James Boag’s-Railway Stakes (1600m)
Analysis: I’m not going to pretend I know who will win this race. Unbelievably good race with about 15 chances on their day. These aren’t recommended tips but here is what we think.
Tip: Good Project – has been rested for this and based on its finish last start will appreciate the 1600m. If it is clear in the straight and gets some luck from the wide barrier, he will be very close.
Dangers: Everyone……Or ihe is f I had to I would say the BIG BART because i love him and he is flying at the moment. Chuck in Delicacy and Real Love because they are class and look ready for this. For some VALUE throw in Tower of Lonhro. Is Second up and very light weight could run a very sneaky race here.
Race 9 – Tattersall’s Cup (2100m)
Analysis: Let’s end the day on some value. Finishing his races very strong and gets up in distance here. Light weight and drawn for a perfect run.
Tip: Raising Dubai (1 unit EACH-WAY @ $13.00 and $3.50) >> Bet365